Monday, July 1, 2013

Warning of natural disasters: German researchers make El Niño earlier ... - ABC Online

empty fishing nets, heavy rainfall, droughts and hurricanes – the El Niño phenomenon has grave implications including in the Pacific region. With a new networked measurement method German researchers are now warning may extend to more than a year

a new method of German researchers want to predict the El Niño phenomenon earlier and better. So far, scientists were able to provide a forecast for six months – in future it will be up to 18 months, said the University of Giessen. . Moreover, the warnings of El Niño significantly unerring

were El Niño is a natural climate fluctuation, with devastating consequences: on the one hand floods, drought on the other. No wonder, then, that is a long time to research the climate phenomenon. Since the 1950s, there is a monitoring network in the tropical Pacific. In more than 200 measuring points is observed whether behaved water and air temperature extraordinary. The researchers from the University of Giessen and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (spades) now tracked previously unrecognized connections and remote effects. They were already in front of the El Niño recognizable


past -. Rare and wrong

“In order to avoid some of the worst effects of El Niño, a longer warning time is incredibly important because it gives the people in the affected regions more time to prepare,” said one of the researchers involved, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber of the spades.

Also The researchers are with the predictions rarely wrong: In less than one out of ten cases they give false alarms. That was more than twice as good as the previous forecast method. “We have a very high hit rate,” said the physicist Armin Bunde of the University of Giessen.

A “Christ Child”, which brings no good

El Niño occurs irregularly, but often compared to year-end – so he is also translated “Christ Child”. He leads among other things, that the Pacific is warmer off the west coast of South America and colder off the east coast of Australia and Indonesia. By climate reversal fishing nets left blank, it comes to hurricanes, floods and droughts in South America, in Australia. This phenomenon has been exacerbated in recent decades due to global warming – at least shows a recent study

The new prediction method describes the research team in the “Proceedings” of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States (“. PNAS “). Among other things, Professor Armin Bunde, Josef Ludescher and Professor Hans Hans Joachim Schellnhuber were involved.

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