The German technology sector in Russia loses ground. At fault are not only the sanctions: Due to the low oil prices the world’s interest in alternative technologies falls. Germany is falling behind because hardly anyone is interested in the energy revolution. At the same time French and Italians give Putin the jack in hand.
At the St. Petersburg Economic Forum have thousands visitors from over 100 countries gathered to do with Russia, despite the sanctions shops , Even ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, a friend of Putin, sitting with at the forefront. The former Czech President Vaclav Klaus called early in the morning on the podium the crisis in Ukraine homemade.
“It is high time to end the sanctions,” says Hans-Hermann Thiele from German brake manufacturer Knorr-Bremse. He was like many entrepreneurs from the outset against the sanctions because they damaged the markets. Many German have come into the city on the Neva estuary, to secure their positions -. Particularly with regard to Russia’s increasing orientation to China, such as the dpa watched with interest
For some German companies has become the visit worthwhile: Siemens waiting trains of Russian state railways, the power company Eon wants to work with the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom and other partners for the construction of two other strands of the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream. Gazprom estimates the cost of this project at about 9.9 billion euros. 6200 companies from Germany are still active in Russia, Putin stressed. He did not want to restrict that.
President Putin is confident and says, although the crisis, including low oil price is bad for commodity power, but not as heavy as feared. Russia invite international investors continue to continue to create money in the greatest country in the world, says Putin but
The low price of crude oil also has a different effect. It falls Germany hard, the energy transition for export to make how Angela Merkel actually had in mind. But in fact, the Russians do not need the German technology, explains Matthias Meier chief of the Institute of the German Economy (IW) in Cologne. The IW has just analyze Russia Studiezu publishes the Russia-sanctions. We talked to him about his Russia-study
German economic news:. What are the consequences the EU sanctions for the Russian economy ? p>
Matthias Chief Meier:. The consequences of the simultaneous fall in oil prices, sanctions and Ukraine crisis – accompanied by a general uncertainty and capital flight – are difficult to separate
the real economy, for example, a drop in German exports in mechanical engineering observed by 16 percent. Decreases the purchase of highly specialized European machines This inevitably has a negative impact on the Russian industry and energy production. However, whether this is a direct effect of the EU sanctions, remains open.
In addition to the real economic implications, the EU sanctions also include a restricted access certain Russian state-owned banks to the capital market. This leads to a great strain on the financial sector, which has suffered under an increasing capital flight anyway. The central bank has raised its key interest rate again recently; In the financial sector for the time being no relaxation observed
German economic news:. In what areas can replace imports with own production Russia
Chief Matthias Meier: The difficulty of Russia to replace imports with own production, is most evident in a brief analysis of its countermeasures. Thus the ban on imports of certain EU food has led to food inflation of over 25 percent. Manages Russia not sunk consumer imports as substitute foods, it seems questionable that can be shortly find alternatives for the area of highly complex dual-use goods and in engineering
German economic news:. In what areas is Russia dependent on imports
Chief Matthias Meier: Russia relies on the acquisition of basic technology in the petroleum business. Parts of these goods are subject to the penalties
German economic news:. Originally it was thought that the low oil price hurts Russia. However, the does not seem to be so
Chief Matthias Meier: With a long-term low oil prices, it is expected that international investors scale back their investments in Russia. Although the ruble revenue for a barrel of crude oil due to the exchange rate effect has remained relatively constant, lose those financiers, must replace the profits in other currencies later
The same applies to the state budget. More than half of the revenue of the Russian State originate from the energy sector. The state budget deficit without the major oil price revenue is even more than ten percent in the red. Consumed the country but mainly domestic goods or foreign goods substituted in Germany, the fall in oil prices is not a major problem.
But there are also negative spill-over effects on European economies. Because basically benefit the developed economies of the high yields from the investment-intensive commodity industries abroad. The effect described as petrodollar recycling works as follows: High oil prices make investments in crude oil mining attractive and increase investment in countries such as Russia. However, the technologies come here today from the strong industrial nations like Germany. This high energy prices increase, ultimately, the German and European exports
German economic news:. What are the actual effects of the Russian counter-sanctions on the economies in the EU?
Chief Matthias Meier: In principle, Russia is for many European countries no decisive Importer domestic goods – only 2.6 percent of German exports go to Russia. Of course there are individual companies or even industries that are disproportionately affected by the sanctions.
The import ban of certain, produced in the EU, however, food is in countries like Italy and Spain felt.
German Economic News: Can it be that in the period of sanctions European companies in Russia are displaced from other competitors, such as from Asia
Chief Matthias Meier: In fact, an increasing trade links between Russia and China is to be observed, which has gained particular momentum lately. The extent to which European investors, however, can regain its old market positions after the withdrawal of sanctions and resolution of Ukraine crisis is difficult to assess,
German economic news:. What are the greatest risks for the Russian economy
Matthias Chief Meier: The biggest danger for Russia’s economy represents a sustainable loss of confidence, the combined long-term Investitionsattentismus with an intensifying capital flight could result.