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beach of Aitutaki, one of the Cook Islands: The cool surface waters of the eastern equatorial Pacific cools, according to U.S. researchers, the atmosphere and thus slows down the global warming (Photo:. dpa ) Thursday 29 August 2013
Global warming currently seems to take a break; climate change skeptics feel vindicated. , According to U.S. researchers, however, natural temperature fluctuations in the tropical Pacific are responsible. After the cool phase, it will be back hotter world.
The apparent break of global warming can be explained by natural temperature variations in the tropical Pacific, according to a U.S. study. The researchers conclude the climate Yu Kosaka and Shang-Ping Xie at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California from their simulations. In the British journal “Nature” they make a custom air-computing model that reproduces the observed temperature evolution well.
Despite the rapid increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, global warming seems currently to take a break. For some 15 years, the temperature of the air near the ground has not risen appreciably in the global average. This surprising development has previously seen a climate computer model. Researchers puzzle over the reasons for climate change skeptics feel vindicated.
fluctuations cover climate change
However
natural fluctuations in the climate system can currently cover climate change, as the authors explain. The current unusually cool surface waters of the eastern equatorial Pacific, thus cooling the atmosphere and thus slows down the global warming. The reason for the cooling of the tropical Pacific is not yet clear, the climate researchers write. However, it is likely that it was a natural fluctuation. If this is so, the global warming by the end of the cool phase of the sea would continue, scientists predict. Similar phases are also possible in the future.
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The two experts were fed a climate model with the anomalous surface temperature of the eastern equatorial Pacific. Although this only about eight percent of the earth’s surface, it can affect the air temperature around the world. The oceans hold about 90 percent of the additional heat. And the water temperature in the upper 2000 meters has increased steadily according to data from the U.S. NOAA Ocean Research in the past decades, while the apparent climate change pause.
Hotter summer on northern hemisphere
The modified calculation model now not only reproduce the observed break of global warming, but also regional and seasonal phenomena, the researchers report. So would about the summer in the northern hemisphere still hot, during the months of November to April, a cooling being observed. This also give the model again, albeit less pronounced than in the measured data.
addition, the observed significant slowdown in North West America find also in the modified climate model again as prolonged drought in the southern United States, the team writes. Eurasia for the model calculation, however, does not agree so well with the regional measurements match, which probably lies at an internal climate variability, regardless of the development in the tropics.
Source: n-tv.de
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