Economic Week: Ms. Evers Wölk, ahead the fundamental question: How to explore future
Michaela Evers Wölk: We explore future first use scientific means. We develop visions of the future and try to define possible, probable and desirable future developments. This always includes two components:. Analytical and also normative in many projects
We direct our attention to the design of the future by’d like to find out with research and consulting projects, we want the values and goals for the future , These include questions such as: What can we do to achieve these values and goals? Or in economic projects: What want an economical composite, which offer advantages in the cooperative work? Here, especially in the area of sustainability, the search for solutions that are ecologically sound, socially just and economically efficient. Here we ask, for example: What is sought and how can we implement it with the help of the scientific evidence available
Michaela Evers Wölk is Project Director at the Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment. In addition to her work as a research director, she has taught since 2010 at the Master’s program “Future Research” at the FU Berlin. Her interests include, among other methods of the future, innovation and technology assessment.
What are the likely future developments?
We work in the future research of IZTs example, the concept of megatrends. The term is often a starting point for scientific analysis. The area of digitization is one such important megatrend. This means that it is long-term oriented and very likely.
If you break down the, you end up, for example, the Internet of Things and Services. Aligned with the megatrends we deal with structural things and think about what they mean for social practices or for specific industries. Based on the various mega trends, such as digitization and technologisation, then globalization and internationalization, or the demographic change, we can assume certain developments. Based on this, it is considered what exactly does that mean for the future.
Five Technology Trends 2015
Portable technologies are selling far more slowly. The already-declared experts SmartWatch age can been slow in coming. Important for success: The smart watches must look decent and be of high quality. The supply is not long since all devices and also the watch Apple Watch, which appears in the spring, is not perfect. Thanks to Apple disciples they should be but sell better than competing models. Whether this is sufficient for the breakthrough of SmartWatch remains to be seen. Finally, We’ve had them since 2013. Whether we ever want to wear on your wrist this technique probably decide 2,015th
short-range radio technology NFC (Near Field Communication) is convenient, cheap and already available, but still the Germans are not yet applicable into mobile wallets. No matter what the previous NFC payment services – whether Mastercard, Paypal or telecom – no one could convince consumers to date. Again, Apple comes with its “Apple Pay” in 2015 to Europe. But even here there are many reasons why it is also nothing could be this year, as strong consumer distrust and acquired a few companies.
You have 2014, the markets flooded, conquered the transactions and reaches consumers. Meanwhile, 3D printers are even downright inexpensive and have for their own use. With the price but at the same time seems to disappear the hype. 3D printers could in 2015 thus not only lose their exclusive price, but also their popularity.
You may already flying over our rooftops – Amazon would be thrilled, but that will take a long time. To use civilian drones would be no problem, but our regulations will not allow that so quickly. The car service Uber is the best example of how new ideas that break old rules, rather in court land than to make money.
The Internet of Things
We bring technology into objects – this is the internet of things in short. Already in 2014 it was a huge topic on tech conferences. In 2015, should be significantly increased to win it, but when it will convince the user remains to be seen. The experts are definitely already hooked.
For example, in the Internet of things matter: that control systems are increasingly being transmitted in objects, not only the Internet of People is being implemented, is a unique, long-term development trend. We can almost always look ahead only nuances in the next few years, but now is a continuous development. That is, there is a clear future trend that increasingly control goes into objects. You can see it already partly in everyday range – as in the case of the electric toothbrush, which can be linked to the smartphone
These are only a very narrow links, but that leaves at least in the short term in a market already have a look at what. means the Internet of Things. The same applies to the mobile knowledge that is already available, for example, at events and major trade fairs. Here the exchange of knowledge between humans and between humans and machines is organized more frequently and thus visible.